Prediction of Road Traffic Accident Casualties Using GAP Index (Glasgow Coma Scale, Age, Systolic Blood Pressure) in Kashani Hospital, Isfahan

Introduction: One of the leading causes of death worldwide, especially in developing countries, is traffic accidents. The GAP scoring system (Glasgow Coma Scale, Age, and Systolic Blood Pressure) is a quantitative method that has been developed to predict survival in trauma patients. Considering the importance of preventing deaths caused by traffic accidents, this study aims to predict the prognosis of traffic accident victims using the GAP index in the Kashani Hospital in Isfahan in ۲۰۱۹. Methods: This research was a cross-sectional study of the type of exiting data. The GAP scoring system has been used to predict the severity of injury and mortality of road traffic accident casuaalties referred to Kashani Hospital in Isfahan. The research population included all road traffic injured people in Isfahan province and the research sample included traffic injured people referred to Kashani Hospital in Isfahan by Isfahan Emergency Department in a period of ۳ months in ۲۰۱۹ (۲۶۷۴ injured people). A researcher-made checklist was used to collect data. In the first stage, the road traffic injured data of the province were collected from Isfahan Emergency Management Statistics Center and the data related to Kashani Hospital were separated. Then the separated data was compared with the HIS system of the hospital. In order to access some incomplete data, the files of the injured were studied and finally ۱۹۸۵ injured were included in this research. Descriptive statistics (frequency, percentage, mean and standard deviation) were used to analyze the data and ROC curve was used to evaluate the performance and accuracy of the results. SPSS۲۶ software was used for data analysis. Results: Out of ۱۹۸۵ injured people, ۱۵۰۰ people (۷۶%) were men and ۴۸۵ people (۲۴%) were women. There were ۱۴ deceased people; most of them were motorcyclists (۵ people). The most injured part of the body among the deceased was the face with a frequency of ۶۲% and the least injured part was the hand and arm with ۳.۸%. The most common cause of death is head injury with a frequency of ۵۹% and multiple fractures in ۴۱%. According to the GAP scoring system, ۱۹ people (۰.۹۸%) were in the high risk group, ۱۲۶۷ people (۶۳.۸۱%) were in the medium risk group, and ۶۹۹ people (۳۵.۲۱%) were in the mild risk group. Also, ۴ people from the high risk group (۲۱ percent), ۷ people from the medium risk group (۱ percent) and ۳ people from the low risk group (۱ percent) have died. The best cut point of the GAP scoring system in predicting short-term ۲۴-hour mortality was equal to ۱۵ and with a sensitivity of ۰.۹۶. Conclusion: Most of the deaths caused by road traffic accidents in Isfahan's Kashani Hospital were related to the high-risk group, so this indicates the effectiveness of medical measures in this hospital.